Between the uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump's tariff policy, consumers being increasingly reluctant to spend on discretionary purchases, and several other factors, a U.S. recession in 2025 looks a lot more likely than it did a few months ago. Of course, nobody has a crystal ball, and there's no way to predict a recession with perfect accuracy. JPMorgan Chase recently raised its probability of a recession to 60%, and a survey of top economists found a consensus 45% probability, just to name a couple of examples.